From Alan Bock
Even as President Bush was touting the improved security situation in Iraq and attributing it to the “surge,” factions in anti-U.S. Shia cleric Muqrada al-Sadr’s grouping in Iraq have been urging al-Sadr to end the cease-fire begun six months ago and (generally) adhered to except by rogue factions of the not-always-orderly Mahdi army. The surge no doubt played a role in the improved stabililty in Iraq, as did the decision by Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar province to turn against al-Qaida (a perhaps tenuous decision unless relations with the Shia-dominated central government improve). But the cease-fire decreed by al-Sadr also played an important role. If he decides to end the cease-fire, things could get dicey and much more violent in Iraq rather quickly.
